Likelyhood of getting on NRT to MSP 12/22/10 with 3 seats and #7 on nonrev list?

I'm in Taiwan and heading back home through NRT on Delta. Wondering if you all have any experience with NRT to MSP. The 23rd is wide open and I'd rather stay in a comfortable home on Taiwan than the airport in NRT for a day.

I'm not checking loads because I can see them, just asking about your experience, what do you think, give it a shot?

Flights:
0276 TPE NRT 12 seats available and first on standby list
0620 NRT MSP -4 seats available and 7th on nonrev list and 4 rev stadbys.

(I'm asking this because my LAX to NRT flight was oversold by 35 and we got on along with a few nonrevs lower on the list than us).

Just remember, you want to imagine somewhere between the available and authorized to sell numbers when making your plans... especially on a 747, you're bound to get a few of those wonderful no-shows.

The numbers changed worse and I really don't want to get stuck at NRT so we are going to use our ZED for TPE to LAX instead. I don't understand what you mean by checking the numbers between available and authorized though. I understand the available corresponds to the actual number of seats and the available is what they can sell to (overselling). Isn't this correct?

What he's saying is that not everyone will show up, but don't count on as many no shows as Delta is hoping for. If it's oversold by less than 10, I'd say a couple standbys will get on(Depends where you are on the list), but Those NRT flights get oversold by 50 or more sometimes. I'd never count on 50 no shows. So just because the actual available is below zero doesn't mean you won't get on, but don't look at the authorized and think you're golden

That helps. I have usually gone by the available number and sometimes just for the ease of not having to wait around at the airport taken a later flight. At least I know in dire circumstances I might still have a shot.

China Air has individual screens on each seat and better food so its worth the extra money for this trip.

Thanks, this is a great forum.