Non-rev between PEK-HKG-TPE during Christmas holiday season

All,

I am planning on travel from TPE-HKG-PEK on 12/22/12 and back from PEK-HKG on 12/26/12 and spend a night in HKG and come back to TPE on 12/27/12.

I can only non-rev on Dragon air and Cathay.
This will be the first time I non-rev in Asia and on KA and CX.

Not sure if anyone have any experience before?
I am not sure how busy it is for those routes during that time.
And I have to travel on those dates because I am going to a wedding.

I need to know if it's even possible to non-rev or I should buy a tickets?

There are total of 9 flights a day between PEK-HKG.(7 KA and 2 CX)
And total of 19 or 20 flights a day between TPE-HKG depends on DOW. (16/17 CX and 3 KA)

Please help me and let me know what you think.

Thanks.

You will most likely make it from TPE-HKG on 22 but you'll most likely be staying in HK airport until 23rd night to get out of HKG as everyone will be trying to get out of HKG for the long Christmas break (HKG 2 days public holiday, Christ+boxing, China-nil)

PEK-HKG on 26 is definitely a no-no, everyone will be trying to get back on that day to start work the next, again the TPE on 27 shouldn't post much of a problem due to the high frequency

VERY IMPORTANT NOTE!
Any China-HKG run on KA & CX are usually overbooked because
1. There is a lot of business dealings between China & HKG
2. Trying to ship 0.0001% of 1.3 billion people is not easy
3. Everyone in HKG prefer to fly KA & CX as chinese airline service is not up to international standard
4. China gives only limited landing rights
5. As a result the ticket prices are always close to full price (at least when I buy a couple of days before heading to my meetings)
6. Some fear the chinese airline safety (not me)

I've only done 2-3 china flights these years on ID (also because my company pays for my trip and also I'm there for a meeting which means a fixed deadline)

Its not impossible but I think your risk is high especially during long holidays. Load out of HKG should be fullish starting from 19 and peak on 21-24. 25 planes will be empty leaving HKG and full on the return until 1st.

I would suggest flying from SZX, you can book some dodgy chinese airlines (especially the early morning ones) they come in very cheap. Safety wise, I think its acceptable.
From HKG, there are direct shuttle buses from Kowloon to SZX, which takes about 2 hrs, from airport, take the Airport express train to kowloon station. go downstairs and take the express bus

Just checked on ctrip, szx-pek still around RMB1,000 per leg, quite ok