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Confirm how this works. Example: (8)(10)(154) , there are 8 seats open available to sell, 10 seats more on top of that number because of no shows.. When I later see (-1)(9)(154), it's trending oversold, 24 hrs later it could look (-3)(7)(154) but the numbers keep going negative until (-10)(0)(154) and a big oversold condition..:huh:
Revenue management......betting on no-shows.
Also, in some occasions, if you bought a $150 ticket 4 months ago and I had to book a last minute ticket at 3am for $975, even if everybody shows up and passengers have to be denied, more often than not someone in that low fare range would volunteer for a $400 voucher......so basically they are paying you $400 to allow me to pay them $975.
I really hate oversales, but they do make sense sometimes from the dollars and cents side of things, which nowadays is the only side of things..
Btw, take a look at those NRT flights.......oversales like 40+ per flight..
You said it all!Quote:
Originally Posted by ColoAvs19
we're sweating the numbers for DL gateway/NRT/BKK next week. Thank God we have several options to NRT, because the numbers are going berserk!
Just a correction - it's not 10 in addition, it's 10 that are authorized to be sold. That is, 2 expected no-shows on top of the 8 seats not sold.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spock
Thanks spongebue, now it makes sense.:)Quote:
Originally Posted by spongebue
We see this in rez all the time. There are some complicated formulas being used to determine the amount of no shows historically not just on any given route but on a given date/departure time. This formula is used to determine the number of seats that can safely be sold with a small likelihood of denied boarding. Many of our flights are oversold a bit but our denied boarding compensation percentage is extremely low. The reason the loads jump around so much is simple, even though it may not seem that way. People simply change their reservations more often than you might think. They pay the fees/add collects and just do it.
Also, I don't know about your airline but mine offers a program called Same Day Confirm which allows people to inexpensively move to an alternate flight the same day within a certain period of time so day of departure loads are tough on a nonrev.
SDC should be offered 24 or at least 12 hours prior to dept........3 hrs is pretty pointless
NWA was horrible but Delta is now just as bad ... The numbers change often and always overnight ... I call this seat bingo .. I have seen 50 seats disappear with no cancelled flights or easy to explain reasons (of course that I know of ... im sure there is plenty that I dont) On the other hand, I have seen 10 seat appear out of nowhere. Thats why my motto is if you dont try, you dont fly!
"NWA was horrible but Delta is now just as bad ... The numbers change often and always overnight "
Not true. They can change in an hour or midday--often it's from downsizing 64's to those damned 50 seaters. Revs have to go on some flight. Just think this way--how many MORE employees are combined to fly fewer flights than both airlines had? DL uses NW policy for extended family and same sex partners and live-ins on NRSA now--BIG increase.
I like your motto--makes sense to me! Seat counts don't always show the unassigned seats. Yep, nonrev is a crapshoot!
Ps--love the handle
Quote:
Originally Posted by Funkywabit
The thing I miss about NWA is that the list numbers usually held up even as much as a week out. At DL, nonrevs are listing very last minute. I was listed on the Pisa flight last year and was #2 on the list 24 hours out. Then, with 6 hours left, I was now at 22.
That happened to me w/ the first SYD-LAX flight a few years ago. I thought I'd beat the crowd and get to SYD before hand and then ride the inaugural SYD-LAX. I flew ATL-ICN and was awaiting KE ICN-SYD when I decided to take another look at the SYD-LAX list.......I had gone from #3 w/ 15 seats to #20.
I ran back over to the DL gate and hopped right back on the airplane ICN-ATL.
Your forgetting most flights are payload optimized especially on international flights even though the load center doesn't communicate it accordingly. I will call LCC and they will tell me we have a pallet of mangos on a FQA that we didn't load it yesterday at 8000lbs so free up 12 seats. Cargo pays the bills.
Cargo--oh yeah!! Great point.
My issue was regarding how many MORE nonrevs we have now since DL took over NW and instituted several or their policies. Extended families added so many more NRs--put in the unmarried live-ins and same sex partners...limiting flights to some destinations [seasonally] makes people list very last minute. I hate that, too!!
Agreed Mrs 767er. Still no complaints here with post merger option routing. Plus Skyteam partners being added monthly creates visibility. I rarely Get STUCK (sleepinginairports.com). lol
Quote:
Originally Posted by Funkywabit
INDEEED! If you want to go, just show up!
8000Lbs on an FQA?? Sounds like a blown position limit. Better bump that pallet and throw some nonrevs on!
BTW, One time I carried 30K Lbs of smelly fish for 8 hours, dropped the pallets and quick turned, ferried the airplane for an hour into a teeny little outstation and bulk loaded the whole belly......the smelly fish belly.......not many happy rampers that day!
That just happened to me coming out of LAS. I started at 12 on the list 3 hrs prior, and by departure I was 37. Fricking sucks.......Quote:
Originally Posted by vulindlela