Hey ya.
Feb/Mar are traditionally the "low and slow" months on the South Pacific, so I'd say the odds would be reasonable. Who are you with? Knowing who you get ID's with may help some in suggesting some alternates for you.
As there are only a handful of nonstop flights from LAX and 1 daily from SFO down south, and given you are on the east coast of USA, you may also want to consider coming down via Europe. There are a myriad of opportunities from within Asia to many ports in Oz, although SQ, CX and MH are the only 3 foreign carriers to offer service nonstop into ADL from their respective hubs. Getting to anywhere else in Oz, particularly MEL and SYD will mean easy connections to ADL as well. Quite often you will find it's easier to get nonrev through Asia than on the nonstops from the West Coast. This is not only just due to the few services offered, but also with the capacity restrictions placed on the carriers heading southbound over many months of the year with the prevailing winds. The distance, against the wind, is right at the limit of the 744 endurance, and quite often QF for one has to leave seats and/or cargo space empty, pending the winds forecast.
Normally I'd say February would be fine to travel, but these days with a myriad of "specials" on offer due to lower demand, it may not be. Stick to a Tue/Wed/Thu departure if
possible. Any more info, holler. Cheers.