We see this in rez all the time. There are some complicated formulas being used to determine the amount of no shows historically not just on any given route but on a given date/departure time. This formula is used to determine the number of seats that can safely be sold with a small likelihood of denied boarding. Many of our flights are oversold a bit but our denied boarding compensation percentage is extremely low. The reason the loads jump around so much is simple, even though it may not seem that way. People simply change their reservations more often than you might think. They pay the fees/add collects and just do it.
Also, I don't know about your airline but mine offers a program called Same Day Confirm which allows people to inexpensively move to an alternate flight the same day within a certain period of time so day of departure loads are tough on a nonrev.
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