If a flight is really expected to be weight restricted, it will probably by accounted for under the held seats. But that doesn't always happen, either. Sometimes you just have to wait and see. Or weight and see, if you want to be punny about it. But yes, usually this stuff is figured out at the end. With all that said, I don't think it's quite as big of a problem as it once was back in the day. The 787 especially has a good range, and there are far longer flights on it that go just fine.
As for MEL-SYD, that doesn't exist anymore. We used to fly LAX-SYD-MEL, I think it was (maybe SFO?), but once we added a LAX-MEL nonstop, the SYD-MEL thru flight went away.
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