Personally I always recommend a backup. Most passes are refundable anyway, so if you don't use them you're not out anything. January/February are good times to travel to Hawaii. This period is slow, second only to September/October.

If you're flying from MEM have you checked loads on NW? While they don't offer nonstops to HNL from MEM there are connections thru DTW, MSP and LAX that might be available to you.

Something I always recommend...
Can you easily get to LAX? There are numerous airlines and charters that offer service to the islands - more than most airports in the country combined. AA offers 4 daily to HNL alone. Not to memtion HA, NW, UA and TZ. With backup passes this might be an option.

Bottom line? Keep it simple. If the AA connection works then take it. But remember to check loads from time to time to make sure you don't get stuck and need a backup.

Good luck!