Never been to mbj myself, but check what the flight is uathorized to sell and that should give you an idea as to whether the flight overbooks by alot or if it does not. At my airline flights out of vacation/beach destinations do not usually have a haigh authorization level, meaning the no-show rate is uaully low. So if the flight is showing as overbooked I would not really chance it.

Regards,

Chepos