You are absolutely right, MIGHT is the operative word. Since most airlines exchange ZED travel in economy class only (AA agreements are definitely only Y class) an upgrade should be a pleasant surprise. I, personally, don't even ask as I think it puts the OAL agent in an uncomfortable position. Some don't want to be rude to an another airline employee but may simply not have a choice in the matter. I am personally aware of a couple of airlines that will reprimand their agents if they find a traveler accommodated in a cabin to which he is not eligible for travel.
Definitely not in most cases. Even ZED high is lower than ID90, especially on point-to-point pricing. There is a possibility of finding a lower ID90 on a through itinerary, but most often not.

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